How to measure design suitability—the long view

Among all the smoke and mirrors of new product reveals, how do you actually measure a product’s success and suitability? One way is to consider how an innovation diffuses. This measurement of the “legs” of a technology is rooted in the diffusion of innovation theory (Rogers, 1961). This theory provides a framework that recognizes technology normally has two components: 1) the physical object and 2) the knowledge to use it. My upcoming book, Winds of Change: Innovation and Tradition in the Fishing Boats of Southeast Asia, will extend this inquiry into boat construction and design in Maritime Southeast Asia. I spent six months traveling the boatyards of this region and found interesting results by looking at innovations that never left a region and comparing them to those that spread quickly. Diffusion is often a vote on design suitability rather than optimization.

The motivators for the expansion of innovations are typically thought of as a combination of perceived advantage, compatibility with existing approaches, and ability to experiment with the technology. Looking at actual data on diffusion characteristics let me look backwards into these factors. I am hoping to continue this work next Fall! Cool stuff.