Among all the smoke and mirrors of new product reveals, how
do you actually measure a product’s success and suitability? One way is to
consider how an innovation diffuses. This measurement of the “legs” of a
technology is rooted in the diffusion of innovation theory (Rogers, 1961).
This theory provides a framework that recognizes technology normally has two
components: 1) the physical object and 2) the knowledge to use it. My
upcoming book, Winds of Change: Innovation and Tradition in the Fishing
Boats of Southeast Asia, will extend this inquiry into boat construction
and design in Maritime Southeast Asia. I spent six months traveling the
boatyards of this region and found interesting results by looking at
innovations that never left a region and comparing them to those that spread
quickly. Diffusion is often a vote on design suitability rather than
optimization.
The motivators for the expansion of innovations are
typically thought of as a combination of perceived advantage, compatibility
with existing approaches, and ability to experiment with the technology.
Looking at actual data on diffusion characteristics let me look backwards into these
factors. I am hoping to continue this work next Fall! Cool stuff.
